Key Points
Contents
- March 2026 brought Polymarket 45.3 million visits, exceeding its November 2024 peak of 40 million by 13%
- Kalshi’s March traffic hit 13 million visits, almost doubling its November 2024 figure
- Year-over-year growth shows Polymarket traffic up nearly 400%, with Kalshi climbing approximately 320%
- The single-day traffic record remains November 5, 2024 (Election Day) for both platforms
- Conflict-related wagering has fueled unprecedented growth while raising serious ethical questions
Prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi experienced their most successful month ever in March 2026, with visitor numbers eclipsing the peaks achieved during the heated 2024 presidential election season.
Data from Similarweb indicates that Polymarket attracted 45.3 million combined desktop and mobile visits throughout March. This marks approximately a 13% jump compared to the platform’s previous benchmark of 40 million visits recorded in November 2024.
Kalshi, while operating at a smaller scale, demonstrated even more dramatic proportional expansion. The competing platform secured 13 million visits in March, representing nearly twice the 7.1 million visits tracked during November 2024.
Conflict-Related Wagering Fuels Unprecedented Growth
The explosive expansion has been primarily attributed to betting opportunities centered on the Iran military situation. These markets have captivated users eager to place wagers on international developments.
Polymarket’s monthly visitor count has surged approximately 400% compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, Kalshi has experienced roughly 320% growth over the identical timeframe.
While monthly totals have reached new heights, the single-day record remains intact from November 5, 2024. That Election Day saw Polymarket welcome 8.4 million visitors, with Kalshi drawing 1.9 million users.
Following the presidential election conclusion, both platforms witnessed steep declines in engagement. However, traffic rebounded dramatically in early 2026 as tensions involving Iran intensified.
The explosion in conflict-related betting activity has generated significant backlash. The New York Times documented that substantial wagers on Polymarket materialized just one day prior to the February 28 military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran.
These wagers, frequently exceeding $1,000 individually, forecast American military action against Iran within 24 hours. The suspicious timing prompted concerns regarding potential insider knowledge among certain platform users.
Polymarket declined to provide comment to the Times regarding these allegations. However, the platform stated on its website that its Middle East conflict predictions prove “particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times.”
Platforms Face Mounting Criticism Over War Betting Ethics
Kalshi suspended a high-volume betting market questioning “Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader?” after accumulating over $54 million in wagers. The platform withheld payouts, explaining it prohibits markets “directly tied to death,” as reported by the Washington Post.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulates Kalshi, and this oversight body prohibits trading connected to warfare and mortality. Chief communications officer Elisabeth Diana informed the Times that earning profits from death predictions is “not allowed on Kalshi, and that’s a good thing.”
Despite this stance, Kalshi maintains multiple Iran-focused markets, including speculation on potential U.S.-Iran nuclear agreements.
Polymarket encountered renewed criticism recently for hosting a market allowing predictions about when a missing American pilot would be located after being shot down over Iran. Representative Seth Moulton condemned the wager as “DISGUSTING” through a social media post on X.
The platform responded by confirming it “took this market down immediately” and acknowledged it “should not have been posted.” Polymarket stated the market “does not meet our integrity standards.”
Operating predominantly internationally, Polymarket avoids the CFTC regulatory framework governing Kalshi. The platform continues offering several Iran war-related markets, including speculation on potential U.S. ground troop deployment and conflict duration. These markets feature disclaimers asserting that prediction markets remain “invaluable.”
