Key Takeaways
Contents
- Investment analysts at Morgan Stanley project Macau’s casino gaming revenue will increase 6% in 2026, significantly ahead of the 1% anticipated for Singapore and Las Vegas markets
- The territory’s 2025 gross gaming revenue reached MOP247.40 billion (US$30.63 billion), marking a 9.1% annual increase
- Profitability measured by EBITDA is forecast to grow merely 2% as operational expenses continue mounting
- The investment bank adjusted its rating for Macau gaming from “attractive” to “in-line” based on margin pressures
- While Singapore’s gaming activity is expected to expand, EBITDA projections show a 1% contraction for 2026
Macau’s casino sector is positioned to achieve superior performance relative to Singapore and Las Vegas competitors throughout 2026 when measuring gross gaming revenue expansion. However, bottom-line profitability may struggle to match that revenue momentum.
Investment banking firm Morgan Stanley issued research commentary Wednesday projecting the Macau gaming industry will register approximately 6% year-over-year GGR expansion during 2026. This contrasts sharply with the roughly 1% growth trajectory forecasted for both Singapore and Las Vegas markets.
These projections come following an impressive performance year for Macau in 2025. Government data confirms GGR climbed 9.1% compared to the previous year, reaching MOP247.40 billion, equivalent to approximately US$30.63 billion.
Yet top-line revenue expansion doesn’t automatically translate to earnings growth. Morgan Stanley analysts anticipate Macau’s EBITDA will advance only 2% during the current year. This projection falls short of market consensus expectations.
According to the financial institution, the subdued profitability forecast represents a downward revision from 2025’s performance levels. Escalating cost structures continue exerting downward pressure on earnings throughout the market.
Rising Operational Expenses Create Structural Headwinds
Morgan Stanley’s research team characterized the cost pressures facing Macau as structural rather than temporary. The market’s strategic emphasis on premium mass gaming segments is driving increased expenditure on customer incentives and promotional programs targeting mid-tier patrons.
The banking firm identified three primary factors underlying the conservative EBITDA projections. Initially, GGR momentum is anticipated to decelerate during the latter half of 2026 owing to comparative base effects and persistent softness in base mass gaming segments.
Additionally, promotional allowances remain elevated. These represent expenses associated with player acquisition and retention within an intensely competitive marketplace.
Finally, non-gaming operational costs continue their upward trajectory. These expenses are partially connected to obligations Macau’s six licensed casino operators committed to the government as conditions of their current decade-long gaming concessions, which commenced in January 2023.
Considering these factors collectively, Morgan Stanley revised its assessment of Macau gaming investment prospects from “attractive” downward to “in-line.” The institution now projects diminishing year-over-year GGR growth commencing in May.
Analysts additionally forecast negative EBITDA growth during both the second and third quarters of 2026. This would represent a pronounced departure from the positive trajectory observed throughout 2025.
Singapore Market Shows Volume Strength Despite Normalization Pressures
Morgan Stanley additionally provided analysis on Singapore’s duopoly casino market. This market comprises Resorts World Sentosa, managed by Genting Singapore, and Marina Bay Sands, operated by Las Vegas Sands.
The investment bank anticipates gaming volumes across Singapore will expand by a mid-single-digit percentage throughout 2026. This growth derives from sustained performance strength at Marina Bay Sands combined with newly introduced amenities at Resorts World Sentosa.
Nevertheless, Morgan Stanley does not anticipate Genting Singapore will capture market share from Marina Bay Sands. The bank observed that Genting Singapore has proven unable to accomplish this objective during recent years.
Marina Bay Sands documented exceptionally elevated hold rates during 2025. Morgan Stanley projects these rates will normalize downward to historical average levels this year.
Consequently, the bank forecasts that declining hold rates will neutralize the volume increases. This dynamic leaves aggregate Singapore industry GGR essentially unchanged for 2026.
Morgan Stanley estimates the Singapore gaming industry’s EBITDA will contract by approximately 1% on a year-over-year basis in 2026.
