Key Points
Contents
- Polymarket is working with the CFTC to reestablish access for American users following a 2022 prohibition
- Its limited US beta version features only sports betting markets and maintains an extensive waiting list
- With four vacant commissioner positions, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig holds decisive authority
- Federal prosecutors charged a US Army service member with exploiting classified information to generate $400,000+ in profits on the platform
- Competitor Kalshi has achieved a $22 billion valuation while maintaining full regulatory compliance
The world’s premier prediction market platform, Polymarket, is working to reestablish operations within American borders. Active negotiations are underway with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission regarding the removal of barriers that have prevented US participation on its primary platform since early 2022.
Bloomberg initially disclosed the ongoing discussions. This development follows an extended period during which Polymarket has functioned internationally while cultivating a substantial worldwide customer base.
Shayne Coplan launched Polymarket in June 2020. The service enables participants to purchase positions predicting whether specific future outcomes will materialize, utilizing blockchain infrastructure operating on the Polygon network.
Regulatory scrutiny from the CFTC began in late 2021. Investigators determined that the platform had functioned as an unlicensed venue for event-based binary options trading from its inception. By January 2022, Polymarket faced a $1.4 million financial sanction and received orders prohibiting American customer access.
Current US Operations Remain Restricted
The organization attempted reentry into American markets through a $112 million acquisition of QCEX, a CFTC-registered derivatives platform, completed in July 2025. A beta iteration of Polymarket US became available by year’s end.
This beta offering has significant constraints. Sports wagering represents the sole market category, and access remains restricted by a waiting list containing hundreds of thousands of prospective users.
The platform’s most trafficked segments—political events and macroeconomic forecasts—remain unavailable to US customers. While Polymarket has announced intentions to incorporate climate, cryptocurrency, and electoral markets, no specific launch dates have been provided.
Conversely, domestic competitor Kalshi has maintained regulatory compliance since its founding. Kalshi has established partnerships with Robinhood and Coinbase and achieved a $22 billion market valuation as of March.
Polymarket is reportedly pursuing a $15 billion valuation target. By October 2025, the platform was facilitating more than $3 billion in monthly transaction volume across international markets.
Intercontinental Exchange, which owns the New York Stock Exchange, pledged up to $2 billion in capital and assessed Polymarket at $8 billion during that period.
Regulatory Authority Concentrated in Single Official
Modifying Polymarket’s regulatory standing would necessitate an official commission decision. However, with four unfilled CFTC commissioner seats, Chairman Michael Selig possesses essentially unilateral decision-making power.
Selig has demonstrated receptiveness to the concept. During April 16 testimony before the House Agriculture Committee, he stated the agency’s interest in attracting offshore market activity back to domestic jurisdiction under appropriate oversight.
Proposed solutions include integrating the offshore platform’s blockchain infrastructure with the domestic exchange or complete consolidation onto the US-licensed system. Both pathways would demand substantial operational restructuring.
Opposition exists to these plans. Congressional Democrats sent correspondence to Selig last month advocating for enhanced enforcement targeting offshore prediction platforms. They referenced insider trading risks and national security vulnerabilities.
These apprehensions gained validation recently. Federal authorities filed charges against a US Army service member for leveraging classified military intelligence to generate over $400,000 through wagers on the apprehension of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The individual circumvented access restrictions using VPN technology.
This incident demonstrated the ease with which American users bypass existing prohibitions. It simultaneously intensified questions regarding platform monitoring capabilities.
Polymarket has processed hundreds of millions in wagering volume related to military engagements in Ukraine, Israel, and Iran. Under American regulatory frameworks, numerous such contracts would encounter severe restrictions. CFTC regulations forbid US-registered venues from offering contracts linked to armed conflict, terrorist activities, or political assassinations.
The prediction market sector has attracted political interest. Donald Trump Jr. maintains advisory positions with both Polymarket and Kalshi. Trump Media and Technology Group has signaled intentions to develop a competing service.
The CFTC persists in defending federal jurisdiction over prediction markets through litigation, while multiple state governments contend these products fall within gambling regulatory authority.
