Quick Summary
Contents
- Prediction markets in Canada are restricted to three categories: economic data, financial instruments, and climate forecasts — sports and political markets are prohibited
- A 2017 prohibition on binary options shorter than 30 days prevents the rapid-fire contracts common on American platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket
- Wealthsimple secured approval for forecast contracts, becoming Canada’s second authorized platform alongside Interactive Brokers
- Following a 2025 regulatory settlement, Polymarket cannot operate in Ontario, though promotional materials allegedly appeared at Toronto Blue Jays baseball games
- Vancouver Prediction Exchange is pursuing regulatory clearance in British Columbia to establish a domestically owned prediction market operation
While prediction markets have experienced explosive growth in the United States, Canada remains largely shut off from this trend. Stringent regulations combined with a decentralized provincial governance structure have effectively blocked industry expansion.
Currently, Canadians have access to only one authorized platform for placing wagers on real-world outcomes: Interactive Brokers’ Forecast Trader. The recent approval of Wealthsimple to offer forecast contracts marks a significant development, making it the second regulated option. Questrade has expressed interest in launching similar offerings but remains in the regulatory approval queue.
Even when these three services become operational, Canada’s prediction market environment will bear little resemblance to its American counterpart. Canadian regulations confine operators to contracts based on economic data, financial market movements, and climate-related forecasts. Sporting events, political elections, and cultural happenings remain firmly prohibited.
Werner Antweiler, an associate professor at UBC’s Sauder School of Business, emphasized the narrow scope of what’s permissible. Antweiler operated an experimental prediction market at Sauder spanning more than two decades.
“They’re not allowed for events such as elections, cultural and social events, or sports events,” Antweiler told Gambling Insider.
A significant obstacle stems from Canada’s 2017 prohibition on binary options with durations under 30 days. The Canadian Securities Administrators implemented this restriction due to concerns surrounding fraudulent activity and investor protection. This regulation alone would eliminate most sports-related contracts, which generally settle within hours or days.
Provincial Jurisdiction Creates Fragmented Oversight
Canada’s regulatory architecture differs fundamentally from the American model. While the Commodity Futures Trading Commission provides centralized oversight of prediction markets in the United States, Canada lacks a unified national framework. Provincial and territorial authorities manage securities regulation through the coordinating structure of the CSA.
Johanna Nicholson from the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization confirmed this arrangement in correspondence with Gambling Insider. She explained that prediction markets structured as financial products fall under provincial securities legislation.
This arrangement creates substantial legal ambiguity. Provincial governments could potentially classify prediction markets as gambling activities rather than securities transactions, which would transfer authority to provincial lottery commissions.
“Prediction markets are in legal limbo,” Antweiler noted. He indicated the matter may ultimately require judicial resolution.
In early April, CSA and CIRO released a joint statement reinforcing existing regulations governing event contracts. The communication was unambiguous: operators must comply or face regulatory action.
Polymarket Faces Ontario Ban While New Competitors Emerge
The Ontario Securities Commission finalized a settlement with Polymarket in 2025 following three years of the platform’s operations in the province despite violating the short-term contract prohibition. The agreement prevents Polymarket from marketing or conducting business in Ontario for a minimum of two years.
Despite this restriction, Canadian news outlets documented individuals distributing Polymarket promotional materials outside Rogers Centre during the Toronto Blue Jays’ season opener. The OSC refused to confirm whether it was pursuing an investigation.
Alberta has adopted an equally strict position. With its commercial gambling marketplace launching in July, the provincial regulator has explicitly banned political election wagering and prediction market activities.
Conversely, a startup called Vancouver Prediction Exchange aims to establish a Canadian-owned platform. VPX is requesting exemptive relief from British Columbia’s binary options restrictions and intends to conduct a controlled pilot program with CIRO-registered dealers.
Meanwhile, resourceful Canadians continue accessing international platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket using VPN services. Testing revealed that Kalshi’s geographic restrictions prevented deposits from Canadian IP addresses, while Polymarket permitted an immediate $12 CAD deposit without requiring VPN usage.
The Nova Scotia Securities Commission indicated it has no intention of targeting platforms authorized nationally through CIRO frameworks, such as Wealthsimple and Interactive Brokers.
