Key Findings
Contents
- More than 15,000 Americans participated in a survey revealing that 81% classify sports event contracts on prediction markets as gambling activities
- Just 29% of respondents trust the CFTC’s capability to properly oversee sports event contracts, while 49% have minimal confidence in prediction platforms preventing insider trading
- A substantial 78% believe prediction market companies should face identical state taxation and licensing fees as traditional sportsbooks
- Multiple state governments have launched legal action against prediction market platforms, with Nevada securing courtroom wins against both Kalshi and Coinbase
- Kalshi allegedly processed over $800 million in trading volume during the NCAA Tournament’s opening weekend alone, while major operators like DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics expand their prediction offerings
New polling data reveals an overwhelming majority of American adults classify sports-focused prediction market contracts as gambling rather than legitimate investment vehicles. Morning Consult conducted the research, collecting more than 15,000 responses during a five-day period from March 17 through 22.
The survey received funding from Gambling is Not Investing, an advocacy group dedicated to blocking federally regulated exchanges from providing sports-related contracts. The findings demonstrate that 81% of participants categorize purchasing contracts based on sports outcomes as gambling activity.
Mick Mulvaney, who serves as Executive Director of Gambling is Not Investing and previously held the position of acting White House chief of staff, characterized the findings as validation of mounting concerns. He criticized prediction market platforms for masking sports wagering products behind the veneer of financial trading instruments.
Merely 29% of survey participants expressed belief that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission possesses adequate capability to regulate contracts based on sporting events. The CFTC functions as the federal authority responsible for prediction market oversight.
Mike Selig, who received Senate confirmation as CFTC chair in December following President Trump’s nomination, has emerged as a vocal advocate for prediction markets providing sports-related contract offerings. His position has generated pushback from state-level regulators and established gambling industry stakeholders.
Skepticism About Prediction Platform Safeguards
The research discovered that 73% of participants believe terminology such as “event contracts,” “swaps,” or “futures” conceals the genuine financial dangers facing traders. More than half indicated that purchasing sports event positions on prediction platforms involves identical risk levels as placing wagers through licensed sportsbook operators.
A mere 34% demonstrated confidence that prediction market platforms provide consumer protections matching those at licensed sportsbooks. Nearly half the respondents, 49%, reported having limited or zero faith in these platforms’ capacity to block insider trading activities.
An overwhelming 81% declared that prediction markets must comply with state sports betting regulations, encompassing age verification requirements and responsible gambling protocols. Prediction market platforms currently permit participation from adults aged 18 and older, whereas most state jurisdictions mandate bettors reach age 21.
Regarding taxation, 78% supported requiring prediction market operators to remit equivalent state taxes and licensing fees as sportsbook operators. Traditional sportsbooks typically pay taxes calculated on gross revenue, while prediction markets collect commissions from transactions between contract buyers and sellers.
Opponents contend that prediction markets’ reliance on market makers to supply liquidity renders them operationally indistinguishable from conventional sportsbooks.
Legal Challenges and Congressional Action Mount
Numerous state governments have initiated legal proceedings against prediction market companies. Nevada has achieved judicial success in blocking both Kalshi and Coinbase from providing contracts connected to sports, entertainment, and political events.
Massachusetts similarly obtained a temporary restraining order against Kalshi, barring the platform from marketing sporting event contracts within state boundaries.
In Washington, D.C., lawmakers from both parties have introduced legislation designed to restrict prediction market operations. U.S. Senators John Curtis and Adam Schiff jointly sponsor legislation that would ban prediction markets from providing any products resembling sports wagering or casino gaming activities.
Curtis framed the legislation as defending state sovereignty, safeguarding families, and preventing speculative financial instruments from infiltrating inappropriate markets.
Despite facing this resistance, prediction markets maintain growth trajectories. Recent reports indicated Kalshi facilitated more than $800 million in trading activity solely during the NCAA Tournament’s opening weekend.
DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics have each launched prediction market platforms. These services enable them to provide sports contracts in populous states including California, Georgia, and Texas, where sports betting legalization has not occurred.
Jason Robins, serving as DraftKings CEO, characterized prediction markets as “a massive incremental opportunity” during the company’s latest earnings presentation. He indicated the company anticipates generating hundreds of millions in annual revenue from its predictions product within upcoming years.
