Key Highlights
Contents
- Underdog’s purchase of Aristotle Exchange provides direct access to CFTC-regulated infrastructure
- The acquisition enables independent operation of event contracts without reliance on external partners
- The company recently shuttered its sports betting operations in North Carolina and Missouri
- More than 125 workers (over 20% of workforce) were terminated during the strategic transition
- PredictIt remains independent and was excluded from the transaction
In a strategic pivot away from traditional sports wagering, Underdog has completed the acquisition of Aristotle Exchange, securing ownership of a Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated derivatives platform and clearinghouse.
Previously, the company relied on third-party infrastructure through a collaboration with Crypto.com’s exchange to facilitate sports event contracts. This acquisition eliminates that dependency, providing Underdog with autonomous capabilities to launch and oversee contracts.
Jeremy Levine, Underdog’s Chief Executive Officer, expressed optimism about the sports-oriented prediction market segment. “We’re in the early innings of what prediction markets can be, especially for sports fans,” Levine stated.
This move represents a significant strategic realignment for the organization. Over recent months, Underdog has systematically withdrawn from conventional sports betting activities.
Last December, the company terminated its sportsbook operations in North Carolina. Additionally, it withdrew its pending application in Missouri, marking a complete departure from the sports gambling sector.
Changes have also affected the company’s daily fantasy sports portfolio. The Pick ’em product line, which operated on a house-banked model, has been discontinued in multiple jurisdictions and currently operates in only 15 locations.
In markets such as California and Arizona, where Pick ’em faced regulatory scrutiny, the company has transitioned to peer-to-peer contest formats.
Late in February, approximately 125 staff members were terminated, representing more than one-fifth of Underdog’s workforce. Levine attributed these reductions to the transition from state-level licensing to a federally-regulated national prediction market framework.
The Rush to Acquire Regulated Infrastructure
This acquisition strategy extends beyond Underdog. DraftKings completed its purchase of Railbird Exchange last October, while Robinhood collaborated with Susquehanna International Group to obtain LedgerX. Coinbase similarly acquired The Clearing Company.
Purchasing pre-licensed infrastructure circumvents lengthy regulatory approval timelines that can extend for years. To date, none of these organizations have launched proprietary prediction market products.
Unlike sports betting, which falls under state gambling frameworks requiring jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction licensing, prediction markets are governed by federal commodities regulations. This structure allows a single federal authorization to support nationwide deployment.
This regulatory framework has attracted considerable capital to the sector. It has simultaneously generated legal conflicts between state authorities and platforms like Kalshi regarding the proper classification of sports-related event contracts.
PredictIt Operates Independently
Aristotle Exchange has historical connections to PredictIt, the political prediction marketplace established in 2014. PredictIt enables participants to trade contracts based on political elections and governmental developments.
PredictIt functions under a CFTC no-action letter framework as an academic research initiative, distinct from registered derivatives exchanges. It was specifically excluded from Underdog’s transaction.
Toni Galeassi, PredictIt’s Public Relations Director, verified the platform’s independence. “The ownership and operational structure of PredictIt remains unchanged,” Galeassi confirmed, emphasizing that operations will “continue operating and conducting business as usual.”
In the previous year, PredictIt’s contract limit increased from $850 to $3,500, while the former 5,000-participant restriction per market was eliminated under updated CFTC no-action terms.
